Short-Term lists swing-trading setups with a measured historical edge, explains the rule behind each one and lets you paper-trade it with fake money to see how it plays out.
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⚡ Short-Term & Swing Trading
Risk first, always. Short-term trading is where most people lose money, so every idea here is built to protect capital: long-only and with the trend (no shorting, no fighting a downtrend), each setup ships with a fixed entry, stop-loss and target so your risk is known before you enter, and each is backtested on that very stock so you only act where there's a real historical edge. The recommendations then size each position to risk ~1% of your account — the single biggest lever for keeping losses small.
⚠ Reality check: even good setups lose ~40–50% of the time — the edge is in a favourable reward-to-risk and strict stops, not in being right often. Always use the stop. Past performance is not a guarantee. This is analysis and education, not investment advice.
The playbook — 3 rules-based setups, each risk-defined and backtested
Oversold pullback (buy the dip)Mean reversion
In a confirmed uptrend, a short, sharp dip (RSI-2 deeply oversold or a poke below the lower Bollinger Band) tends to snap back. You buy weakness inside strength.
Baseline reward:risk 2.0:1 · exits at stop, target, or after 10 trading days
Momentum breakoutMomentum
Price closes above its 20-day high on above-average volume while trending up — a breakout that often runs. Stop goes just under the breakout; target is a measured move.
Baseline reward:risk 2.0:1 · exits at stop, target, or after 10 trading days
Trend pullback to the 20-dayTrend continuation
A strong, stacked uptrend (20 > 50 > 200-day averages) that eases back to its rising 20-day line — a lower-risk spot to join an established trend.
Baseline reward:risk 2.0:1 · exits at stop, target, or after 10 trading days
Every setup is scored on its own history: how often it worked (win rate), its average result in units of risk (expectancy, where +1R = one full risk unit gained), and its profit factor. A setup only earns the Edge ✓ badge — and a place in the recommendations — once it has enough past trades and a positive expectancy.
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