Recession Watch: US recession signals and their track record

Is the US in a recession right now?

No recession has been dated since the one from March 2020 to April 2020. The official dates come months after the fact, so the warning signs below are the earlier read: 0 of 4 are firing today.

US recessions are dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, which announces a start or an end months after it happened. That is why people watch signals that tend to move first.

What is the recession risk today?

The Moneydesks recession watch reads low: 0 out of 100, with 0 of 4 signals firing.

The score adds points for each warning sign that fires: up to 30 for the yield curve, 25 for the Sahm rule, 15 for jobless claims and 5 for industrial production. Under 25 reads low, 25 to 49 elevated, 50 and up high. It is a checklist score, not a probability of recession.

Signal	Type	Status
Yield curve	leading	quiet
Sahm rule	lagging	quiet
Jobless claims trend	leading	quiet
Industrial production	lagging	quiet

Is the yield curve inverted?

No. The 10-year Treasury yield is 0.32 percentage points above the 2-year, as of November 4, 2026.

Normally long-term yields are higher than short-term ones. When the 2-year yield rises above the 10-year, the curve is inverted. Inversions have come before past US recessions, often by a year or more, which is why this is a leading signal.

Since June 1976, this signal fired 7 times (rule: below 0 (inverted)). 4 of those warnings were followed by a recession within two years, typically after about 18 months (between 7 and 20), or came during one; 3 were false alarms. It flagged 6 of the 6 recessions in that time.

What does the Sahm rule say?

The Sahm rule reads 0.00 for September 2026, below the 0.50 trigger.

The rule compares the three-month average unemployment rate with its lowest point of the previous 12 months. A rise of 0.50 points or more has marked the early months of past recessions, so it confirms a downturn more than it predicts one.

Since December 1959, this signal fired 12 times (rule: 0.50 or more). 10 of those came during a recession or shortly before one; 2 were false alarms. It is a confirming signal: it usually fires once a recession is already under way. It flagged 9 of the 9 recessions in that time.

Are layoffs rising?

The four-week average of new jobless claims is down 5% from six months earlier (week of October 24, 2026). The watch flags a rise of more than 8%, and fires above 20%.

Initial jobless claims count people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time each week. A steady climb means layoffs are spreading.

Since July 1967, this signal fired 9 times (rule: 4-week average up more than 20% in six months). 9 of those warnings were followed by a recession within two years, typically after about 10 months (between 4 and 10), or came during one; 0 were false alarms. It flagged 7 of the 8 recessions in that time (it did not flag the one that began in January 2008).

Is industrial production falling?

Industrial production is +2.2% from a year earlier (September 2026). The watch fires on a drop of more than 1%.

Industrial production measures the output of factories, mines and utilities. It tends to fall once a recession is under way.

Since January 1920, this signal fired 24 times (rule: down more than 1% from a year earlier). 20 of those came during a recession or shortly before one; 4 were false alarms. It is a confirming signal: it usually fires once a recession is already under way. It flagged 16 of the 18 recessions in that time (it did not flag the ones that began in February 1920 and December 1973).

How often has each signal been right?

In their own data, the yield curve flagged 6 of 6 recessions with 3 false alarms, the Sahm rule flagged 9 of 9 recessions with 2 false alarms, the jobless claims trend flagged 7 of 8 recessions with 0 false alarms and industrial production flagged 16 of 18 recessions with 4 false alarms.

Signal	Type	Since	Recessions flagged	False alarms	Typical lead	Today
Yield curve (10-year minus 2-year)	leading	1976	6 of 6	3	about 18 months	quiet
Sahm rule (unemployment)	lagging	1959	9 of 9	2	fires during	quiet
Jobless claims trend	leading	1967	7 of 8	0	about 10 months	quiet
Industrial production	lagging	1920	16 of 18	4	fires during	quiet

US recessions since 1920

• February 1920 to July 1921
• June 1923 to July 1924
• November 1926 to November 1927
• September 1929 to March 1933
• June 1937 to June 1938
• March 1945 to October 1945
• December 1948 to October 1949
• August 1953 to May 1954
• September 1957 to April 1958
• May 1960 to February 1961
• January 1970 to November 1970
• December 1973 to March 1975
• February 1980 to July 1980
• August 1981 to November 1982
• August 1990 to March 1991
• April 2001 to November 2001
• January 2008 to June 2009
• March 2020 to April 2020

Where the numbers come from

Every series is public data from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread (T10Y2Y), the real-time Sahm rule (SAHMREALTIME), initial jobless claims (ICSA) and industrial production (INDPRO). Recession dates are FRED's USREC series, based on the NBER's business-cycle dating. The track record is computed by Moneydesks with the same thresholds as the watch, on today's revised data, which can differ from what was known at the time. There have been only a handful of recessions in this data, so these are rough base rates, not probabilities. Educational, not investment advice.